Shaping Future Landscapes: the Scenario Approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
European landscapes change rapidly due to increasing pressure of urbanization on agricultural land. Thus, there is a large interest from policy and public on the future shape of landscapes. The interest is putting high demands on individuals that are involved in the decision-making and research process. Landscape indicators get increasing importance in current studies on landscapes change, but—as well as countryside-monitoring activities—they are focused on illustrating past and present changes. This paper would like to propose a supplementary approach to research the future shape of landscapes. A scenario approach is suggested to cope with identification and integration of interests in future agriculturally used landscapes. Future alternatives for development in rural areas are presented for a rural area in Denmark. With the help of four distinctively different paths of future development of the area—industrial agriculture, recreation and tourism, nature conservation and residential expansion—scenarios were designed, visualised, presented to, and discussed with stakeholders in the sample area. The stakeholder responses were used to design additional future alternatives integrating the different interests of the stakeholders. The paper argues for combining monitoring and scenario techniques for linking landscape changes of the past with demands for future developments.
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