Shaping Future Landscapes: the Scenario Approach

نویسندگان

  • Bärbel Tress
  • Gunther Tress
چکیده

European landscapes change rapidly due to increasing pressure of urbanization on agricultural land. Thus, there is a large interest from policy and public on the future shape of landscapes. The interest is putting high demands on individuals that are involved in the decision-making and research process. Landscape indicators get increasing importance in current studies on landscapes change, but—as well as countryside-monitoring activities—they are focused on illustrating past and present changes. This paper would like to propose a supplementary approach to research the future shape of landscapes. A scenario approach is suggested to cope with identification and integration of interests in future agriculturally used landscapes. Future alternatives for development in rural areas are presented for a rural area in Denmark. With the help of four distinctively different paths of future development of the area—industrial agriculture, recreation and tourism, nature conservation and residential expansion—scenarios were designed, visualised, presented to, and discussed with stakeholders in the sample area. The stakeholder responses were used to design additional future alternatives integrating the different interests of the stakeholders. The paper argues for combining monitoring and scenario techniques for linking landscape changes of the past with demands for future developments.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Future study of natural gas consumption in Iran in the horizon of 2030; Approach Scenario making based on regression pattern Censored

Emissions of more than three-quarters of greenhouse gases by the energy sector have affected climate change in various economic, political and social sectors. Climate change is affecting energy consumption, including natural gas. This article deals with the future of natural gas consumption in the country with regard to climate change until 2030 using a combined approach of econometrics and sce...

متن کامل

Future Scenarios of Iran's Public Libraries Based on Futures Workshops for Selected Librarians, Managers and Members

Purpose: Nowadays, public libraries are going through a critical period and turning point, a time when from one hand and based on the environmental trends affecting them, can be a sign of their future elimination, or on the other hand if they enjoy an accurate picture of the future and adopt appropriate strategies, can provide them with a renewed vital opportunity. This issue is related to the ...

متن کامل

Strategies for the Future of Medicine in Iran Based on a Scenario Planning

Background: The rapid and increasing growth of technology in the artificial intelligence era and its impact on fundamentals changes in the development of science including biomedicine and health presents a need for the future studies in medical sciences. This project is striving to provide a desirable model based on authentic forecasting models in order to clarify the probable and uncertain fut...

متن کامل

ICOMOS – IFLA Principles Concerning Rural Landscapes as Heritage – Delhi 2017

Rural landscapes are a vital component of the heritage of humanity that contain a complex lattice of tangible and intangible cultural heritage and have a strong connection with their surrounding nature and environment. As a result, they can be named the rural landscapes. Since the living rural landscapes are one of the most common types of cultural landscapes in existence, their conservation is...

متن کامل

Analysis of temperature changes in East Azerbaijan province with a climate change approach Using the SDSM model

Temperature change in the future, which is very important in terms of agriculture, development and health, can be one of the consequences of climate change and global warming. Knowing how it can be a significant help to the agricultural sector and development issues and managerschr(chr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr('39')39chr('39')))39chr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr('39')39chr('39')...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2002